It’s not hyperbole to suggest that this may be the most anticipated and post-season impactful Holy War in the history of these two programs. I couldn’t tell you the last time that this matchup has had even close to the same stakes for both teams. A CCG and potential CFP berth is on the line and the winner of the game Saturday is very likely to be the favorite to join Big 12 frontrunner Texas Tech in Arlington. If Utah were to lose this game, their postseason hopes and shot at the Conference Title might be dashed. Should BYU lose, the rest of their schedule gets a whole lot more important, with little room for error. After the end of last year’s installment, the drama has also reached critical mass.
So what is the expectation when two high-powered teams square off head to head in a rivalry game that has Big Noon Kickoff interested enough to make their 2nd trip to the Beehive State in the past 4 weeks?
I’d like to share some lyrics from a song that a metal band called Five Finger Death punch wrote in 2011 whose words seem relevant or potentially even vital in determining who the winner will be come Saturday night:
It’s time to rise up, man up, get back up,
Never bend and won’t be broken
Dust off and then come back for more
You’ve gotta reach down, dig deep, and break ground,
Show them all you won’t be beaten
Brush it off and then come back for more!
– Five Finger Death Punch | Back For More | 2011
Aside from everything that you might see here and conclusions you might draw, it is my own opinion that in the trenches, specifically on 1st Down, is where this game will be won or lost. It takes a (questionably?) sick individual to repeatedly smash themselves into other gigantic human specimen. It takes an even sicker individual to relish that, to enjoy that, and to continuously want that smoke and do it over and over and over. The bigs who win those battles will very likely be the reason their team is able to emerge victorious.
You have probably heard many a talking-head say something along the lines of “You can throw the stats out the window when there’s a rivalry game.” I would expect nothing less from this game, but we wouldn’t be doing ourselves any favors if we didn’t at least take a look at what the stats say about this matchup. So here they are:
Before we go further, let’s again get the “definitions” section out of the way. In addition to the helpful definitions above, it’s worth noting that EPA means “Expected Points Added”. It is down-dependent rating on how much you benefit your overall score based on the play you just ran. In regards to offense, it will be higher if you are better at that metric vice-versa for the defense. You will also see me talk about opponents. Other than acknowledging that Utah and BYU both have victories over FCS opponents, you will not see me mention any stats/ranks related to those opponents. I count them as nothing more than a win.
The Stats Projection
Cougar fans, there’s a reason that Utah opened the week as Vegas’ favorites to win this game. They have been statistically excellent in most of the games they have played this year, including in their loss against Tech in Salt Lake about a month ago, but we’ll get to that in a little bit. That being said, let’s take a look at this from BYU’s perspective for a minute.
What are some potential things BYU can lean on in this game?
Offense vs Defense
Let’s take a closer look at the BYU offense in relation to the Utes defense to see if there are any obvious areas where BYU might be able to take advantage of the matchup.
BYU’s Offensive Advantages
BYU’s Offensive “bread and butter” this year has been their run game. LJ Martin has been an absolute stud averaging 6.5 yards/carry and is the #4 rushing yards leader in all of the P4 conferences. He finds himself behind only Ahmad Hardy (Mizzou), Hollywood Smothers (NC State), and Justice Haynes (Michigan). BYU has been rushing the ball on essentially 60% of their plays (23rd most in the country) and is #10 in EPA/Rush. Should BYU prove to be able to run the ball effectively against Utah, this game could turn ugly for the visitors who gave up over 200 yards on the ground to WVU.
Aside from Texas Tech, Utah has not faced as balanced of a Rush/Pass attack as BYU to date, which will be an interesting matchup we will want to keep our eyes on. Utah’s defense has allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of their conference games so far (I am counting the 149 they allowed to ASU, that 1 yard is definitely there in the sum of the “half yardages” box scores don’t account for). Outside of Tech, no team has passed for more than 150 yards on Utah’s defense.
On the other side of the equation, BYU and Bear Bachmeier have not had a game in which they have rushed for under 150 yards and passed for under 150 yards. I’m not saying Bear is dicing up every team he plays through the air (he hasn’t been asked to do that by ARod), but he has been effective in the passing game, and done well at home.
BYU is also a very good late down team converting on just over 50% of their late-down plays (#23). This is a metric in which Utah’s defense is giving up a conversion nearly 45% of the time (#87 in the country). If BYU can exploit this chink in Utah’s armor and stay on the field and control the clock, it could be a very long night for the Utes. Playing keep away from them with long, methodical drives would be using their own game against them.
Defense vs Offense
Below is the stats comparison for BYU’s defense opposed to Utah’s offense.
BYU’s Defensive Advantages
There’s a few things that jump right out when looking at these metrics:
1) Utah is not a very explosive team offensively (most-specifically in the passing game, but don’t misinterpret this as a weakness per se). This lack of explosivity likely will need to change this game if you are Utah going against BYU’s extremely good secondary (#20 in EPA/pass). If BYU commits to stopping the run, this may open windows in the passing game for Utah that they will need to take advantage of.
That being said, explosive flashy plays isn’t really Utah’s main MO, especially this year. They aim to be efficient, opting to be happy taking 5+ yards on first down (45.3% of the time) and just running and passing the ball to get and stay ahead of the sticks. You can guarantee that Jason Beck is going to be setting up a lot of opportunities for Dampier to make “easy” and efficient throws to force their will on BYU. If I were BYU, I’d be very aware that Utah will find some ways to take some shots if they find themselves in 2nd short opportunities.
2) BYU has a clear field-position advantage. Utah starts their drives on average at the 27 yard line, good for #99 in the country). BYU will need to force Utah into long fields if they want to win this game.
Other Observations
Bear has played well for a true freshman given the strength of the defenses that BYU has played to date.
BYU should hopefully be getting some extremely critical players back toward this back half of the season that will be pivotal in this season’s goals. If we see even a few of the likes of Moa, Phillips, Kelly, or Kabeya back in time for Utah, it will be fantastic news for the Cougars.
BYU has a better Strength of Record than Utah (#9 vs #22).
This is due to the fact that BYU has beaten the #15, #26, #65, #98, and #115 defenses so far according to ESPN. (#63 average, 2 in the top 30)
Whereas Utah was held to 10 points at home by the #7 Defense and whose other opponents, that they admittedly have handled well, have been ranked #56, #70, #98, and #103. (#81 average defensive rank, none of which are in the top 50, let alone top 30) This is well within the expectations of a quarterback who followed his OC, trying to replicate performance from the year prior.
Both teams’ wins have come against somewhat mediocre offenses. Aside from getting their doors blown off by #1 Texas Tech (but really, who hasn’t yet?), Utah’s next toughest offensive opponent is ASU (#65) according to ESPN (#65, #76, #94, and #95). BYU has faced 2 opponents with top 50 offenses (#35, #45) in ECU and Arizona respectively. (Other opponents #76, #92, #109)
Takeaways
In regards to opponents that they have wins over, BYU has the edge, and they have done well enough from a metrics standpoint. This is extremely impressive given the fact that BYU’s True Freshman quarterback didn’t show up on campus until June and they have lost key offensive players to injury in Jojo Phillips and Sione Moa early in the season.
This game is shaping up to be extremely close. Outside of Texas Tech, BYU will be Utah’s toughest opponent to date (and vice versa) with BYU ranking #29 Offensively and #11 Defensively according to ESPN and Utah ranking #24 Offensively and #10 Defensively.
That being said, and I like a said at the top of the article, my only true expectation is that this iteration of the Holy War will be one for the record books. The winner of this game will Win on 1st down (both sides of the ball) especially in the trenches. Whoever does that will be able to open their playbook and play the type of game they want to play, thus forcing their will over their opponent.
Last year’s Holy War was an exciting game that went down to the very last second. Expecting anything other than that in 2025 would be crazy. This is the kind of game I was hoping to see when it was announced that Utah would be joining BYU in the Big 12. Nationally Ranked. Conference Championship Stakes. Hopeful CFP berth on the line. Bitter Rivalry. Prime time on a national stage. Win or lose, you just absolutely LOVE to see it.
If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t touch this game. I will give a score projection though. Give me a nailbiter with a bit more fireworks than last year and another BYU win with a score at 0:00 of 28-27.
You can find me on Twitter/X @m4gbit or on the CougConnect Discord (frequently in the #stats channel)
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