UCF – In Review
Well ladies and gentleman, that one stings. No excuses though, BYU had their hangover game that many people expected. It was a really bad spot for BYU and they still almost overcame it and walked out of Orlando with a W. Unfortunately, the guys underperformed compared to what they were used to and just couldn’t quite will-out their way to victory.
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Unfortunately for much of the afternoon, BYU looked like a lethargic shell of who they are. They seemingly forgot how to tackle in bits and pieces of the game defensively and the offensive line struggled at times to impose their will on UCFs defensive front.
The chart above details how BYU performed on both sides of the ball relative to UCF on Saturday, while measuring these against UCF’s prior games’ results. The offensive side for UCF is the one that stands out to me the most, indicating just how out of the norm of a defensive showing BYU had. Bear in mind that BYU’s defensive success rate has been in the mid 30s this season on both passing and rushing success allowed. UCF overperformed their typical offensive rushing success by 17% and had 20 rushes of 4 or more yards on the day. That paired with a devastating 3rd and 17 conversion that went for 56 yards (the longest play BYU has allowed from scrimmage on the season to date) were signs of a bad day in Florida for our Cougars.
Last week’s Keys to Success
- No Hangover. Grade – D
BYU started out strong with an 11 play touchdown drive and then followed it up with two consecutive three-and-outs. They finished the game going three-and-out on 4/11 of their non-garbage time offensive possessions. This inefficiency kept UCF in the game and the defense’s performance helped turn this game into a tumultuous back and forth that ended in disaster for Cougar players and fans alike. - Win on Early Downs. Grade – F
This was supposed to be one of the biggest mismatches in the game in favor of BYU. The guys got pushed around and lost this on both sides of the ball and suffered what resulted in a combined margin of -23% early down success rate between the defense and the offense. - Live between the hashes. Grade – D
BYU threw the ball over the short middle just 8 times, completing 3 for 56 total yards. This is an area of the field that UCF was being exploited all year long and BYU could not capitalize. - SEVEN, NOT THREE. Grade – B-
3 TDs and a FG on 4 regulation Eckel Drives is solid, and another score came in overtime, but the red zone rushing attack had just 10 yards on 8 carries. - Protect the ball. Grade – D
This is something that may end up haunting BYU down the stretch. They have been, over the last few seasons, an extremely opportunistic defense taking advantage of errant throws by opposing QBs. BYU failed to force a single fumble for the 7th game this season and did not capitalize on any of the few turnover worthy throws they saw from Keyone Jenkins. They finished their 3rd consecutive game negative in the turnover margin, with Bear throwing a costly interception as BYU was working to Double Dip heading into half time, knowing they’d get the ball back to start the 2nd half.
All in all, I think Saturday’s performance was a game we’d all like to just put behind us. A major silver lining from it is more people seemed more concerned about the ridiculous Roughing the Kicker call that BYU had imposed on them than BYU actually losing, dropping just 6 spots to #8. (That Notre Dame win was clutch in a big way.) So let’s look forward to this week’s game against Arizona State.
(From here on out, we’re going to be using our usual opponent-adjusted stats that exclude garbage time and games against FCS foes. Unless I call it out, you can assume that’s what you’re looking at.)
Let’s start with a look at ASU’s Stat Profile
This game is personal. The last two times these teams squared off was a matchup that left a sour taste in every BYU fan’s mouth to this day. The revenge game has finally arrived and it’s on our home turf.
ASU’s Offense
ASU has a decent rushing attack that averages more than 5 yards per rush and they’ve been moving the ball pretty well on early downs, converting a 1st down on 26% of their 1st and 2nd down plays this season.
I am struggling to find more on this side of the ball that is worth talking about. ASU has struggled offensively in every single road game they have played in and are pretty statistically bad. This year they have proven to be one of the worst passing attacks in the conference and to date have been much better off just running the ball. They’ve been about as poor as BYU’s offense in regards to three-and-outs on the season, and as such, there me be a lot of punts in this game.
ASU’s Defense
The Sun Devils are conversely a somewhat tough defensive out unless you wear them down to the point you can take the top off. They’ve been pretty statistically bad against the run on a per-rush basis, allowing more than 5.5 yards per carry, but rarely get beat by explosives on the ground. They also seem to have a knack for doing really well at keeping things in front of them in the passing game, until they don’t (#82 in Explosive Passes Allowed).
The split kind of tells an interesting story. In it’s three wins, ASU’s defense gave up just two touchdowns on 16 Quality (Eckel) drives. In their three losses, they gave up 13 touchdowns on 21 Eckel Drives. When facing an offense that is firing on all cylinders, this defense has struggled. Look for BYU to take advantage of this defense in the revenge game at home.
The Matchup
My projection model has this game as a roughly 13 point BYU win. I think and hope that BYU will easily cover the Vegas spread of 16.5 points. I am sure they’ve had an absolute bitter taste in their mouth all week and they are champing at the bit to get back on the field and show everyone what they’ve got, and what better game to do it in than a vengeance game against the team that kept them out of the Big 12 Championship in 2024. I think we see an extremely focused BYU team that comes out the gate swinging and smashes their way to a 49-23 victory over the Sun Devils. So how do I think they do that?
Statistical Matchup Keys to the Game
- WRAP UP
The ASU rushing attack is one of the only parts of their offense that has worked well in any sort of a consistent basis. BYU over the last three weeks has been extremely bad in regard to missed tackles. This game will tell us whether or not we need to be worried about this Cougar defense as we wear on into November and the postseason. I fully expect BYU to have gotten back to basics this week and we see a much more disciplined and sure-tackling squad. - Win the Early Downs
ASU is #130/138 in the country in Late Down Success Rate. If BYU’s defense can go back to basics and win on 1st and 2nd down, ASU has shown throughout the year that they’ve struggled to capitalize when they’ve failed on early downs. On the other side of the ball, there is an 84 point ranking disparity between BYU’s early down offensive EPA and ASU’s defensive EPA. - Stop with the Three-and-outs
This one is pretty self-explanatory. Consistent and efficient offenses don’t sputter to get drives going at the rate that BYU has on the season. They need to start drives decisively and get themselves in rhythm early in their drives. Stay ahead of the chains and keep the ASU defense on the field for as long as possible. It will wear them down and keep their offense from finding their footing with what is likely to be a new QBs first start. - PROTECT THE BALL
BYU needs to win the turnover margin playing at home against a team who is -4 on the season in turnover margin. BYU’s defense needs to get in November shape if they are hoping to be a CFP contender. They cannot falter down the stretch after the start of their season. Get back on track, put the clamps on ASU and make them feel the pain that we felt in 2024.
You can find me in the CougConnect discord hanging out in the #Stats channel or on X/Twitter @m4gbit. Don’t forget to subscribe and cheer loud for these Cougs! We’re squarely in the back half of the season and the CFP rankings come out on Tuesday. Let’s see what these guys can do!
Go Cougs!
