#2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU: Beyond the Box Stat Preview

ISU in review.

Well ladies and gentlemen, the Cougs have done it. 5-0 through 5 games and onto what is surely the biggest game in modern-BYU history has arrived. We’ll very quickly take a look at the keys to the game from last week and how the guys did and then we’ll get into the meat.

The guys took care of business against Iowa State in a quiet 24-10 win without LJ Martin. My keys to the game going into last week were to stay on schedule, get the running committee going, find some explosives, and tackle Aiden Flora (among others) early. Let’s evaluate how they did. BYU was successful on 56.5% of its early-down plays and Bear had probably his best game of the season to date aside from a few misses and drops going 22-30 for 329 yards that included a 75 yard bomb to Legend Glasker. The defense held ISU to 2-13 on 3rd down with a solid 21.9% Dropback Success Rate.

The run by committee plan didn’t really happen as effectively as I personally would have hoped from the committee, but since everyone is included in the “committee” it’s nice when it turns out that includes an absolutely baller performance on the legs of Bear Bachmeier with 9 carries for 109 yards (12.1 ypc) and a 89% Success Rate. Preston Rex and Journee Tonga combined for 14 carries for 40 yards (2.9 ypc) and Legend Glasker, Jojo Phillips, and Terrance Saryon got into the mix too from the WR room with 3 carries for 16 combined yards (5.3 ypc). The one that intrigued me was the impact that freshman Devaughn Eka had on the run game. He only had 3 touches for 14 yards (4.7 ypc) but I was impressed with what I saw from him. If you’re doing the math at home, that means that Bear had 109 yards on 9 touches and the rest of the committee had 70 yards on 20 touches (3.5 ypc).

The one thing that seems to have kept the game from being a complete blowout was 4th Down Success, a stat in which BYU in 2025 was really good at. Going 0-3 on plays that included a misheard play call number practically on the goal line after an Iowa State offsides wiped 3 points off the scoreboard, an extremely near-catch in the back corner to phenom Legend Glasker, and just getting stuffed at the line on 4th and 1 near midfield. By my count here, we’re looking at another potential ~3-17 point difference in BYU’s total score (41-10 looks a lot better in box scores than 24-10) but a win is still a win. Overall I was impressed with the way the offense moved the ball and the defense was mostly lockdown and stout allowing just 59 yards of offense from ISU and forcing three three-and-outs in the first half. The biggest concern I had from watching the defense was the staggering amount of missed tackles. It seemed like BYU’s front 7 was living in the backfield against ISU but for some reason, they were unable to tackle as effectively as they had in games past. Iowa State wasn’t really able to fully capitalize on too many of BYU’s mistakes in this regard, but it raised my eyebrows. I am sure they’ve worked on it and I don’t want to harp on it, but those types of things against a team like Notre Dame could very well be the difference in the game.

Now, let’s get into what we’ve been waiting for since the Home-Home was announced last December. If you are not in the CougConnect discord, what are you waiting for? Subscribe and come join the thousands of BYU fans who have joined the grassroots efforts to support the players through NIL! You can come hang out in the Discord and get many more stats than you can see here as well as chat with other dedicated and invested Cougar Fans in the best group of Cougs on the internet (yes I am biased).

(Reminder, the stats that I post here are opponent-adjusted and exclude garbage time plays and games against non-FBS opponents. Unless I saw otherwise, you can assume that the stats I post in this article follow that standard)

I can’t sugar coat it, I personally think Notre Dame is for real

I want to be very clear when I express my opinions about how I think BYU might be able to pull off an upset in this game. I think this Notre Dame team is in the ELITE tier of college football. Not a “Good team with a good record” ELITE. When you look at their metrics, it is hard to find things that they don’t do well. You can say what you want about their SOS and who they have played, but it doesn’t change the fact that they are (by my metrics) #1 in the country (and thus, statistically-elite) in:

1. Defensive Eckel Rate (10.5%, one of my favorite KEY stats)
2. Offensive Success Rate (55.9%)
3. Offensive and Defensive Points/Drive (3.93 and 0.56 respectively)
4. Offensive Points/Play (0.8)
5. Defensive Yards/Play Allowed (3.81)
6. Early Down Success Rate Allowed (23.1%)
7. Rush Success Rate Allowed (24.6%)
8. Explosive Play Rate (4.1%)
9. Offensive and Defensive Standard Down Success Rate (62.7% and 30.3%)
10. Explosive Runs Allowed (2)
11. Offensive and Defensive 1st Down Success Rate (56.2% and 23.8%)
12. (I might have missed one, but this is a long list, you get the gist.

The Notre Dame Offense

So how are they doing this? The offense is led by CJ Carr who is 74-109 (67.9%) in games against P4 opponents (excluding garbage time) with 10 TDs (9 passing) and 0 interceptions.

Three things really stand out to me in watching the film and seeing the stats:

1. He is surgical underneath. In short range throws (up to 20 yards) he is completing 70.3% of his passes.
2. And then he can take the top off. Carr has thrown multiple TD passes beyond 20 yards down the field including an absolute dot to Aneyas Williams for a 70 yard (28 air yard) TD against Stanford last Saturday.
3. He has some certified dudes catching passes. In non-garbage-time P4 play this year, he has 2 absolute Monster receivers in Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert who have combined for over 600 yards and are averaging north of 70% first downs on completions they’ve made.

None of these stats have even brought up the emergence of a potentially prolific rushing attack, that no one was exactly sure would show up to the extent it has, after the departure of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the 1st round of the NFL draft earlier this year. It started out a little bit rocky, but I want to call out that it appears that Notre Dame may have found their guy and turned a corner. Over the last few games, Jonaz Walton has emerged (in my personal opinion) as their best RB. He has been reading the blocks over the last few games really well and has gone for over 400 yards on the ground in the past 2 games. He hasn’t truly lit up the scoreboard (except for his 97 yard touchdown run against Stanford) but he is someone that this BYU team will need to key onto to prevent explosive rushes.

Nolan James Jr. is their most-efficient RB on the team averaging 6.9 yards/carry with a 68% Success Rate over the last 3 games and CJ Carr has even gotten involved in the rushing attack more than I personally expected.

We haven’t even started to talk about the defense that’s probably better than the offense.

This defense reminds me of 2023 Michigan’s defense on their eventual national championship run. Simply put, they are akin to a boa-constrictor. They wear you down, beat on you, wrap you up, wait for you exhale, and then squeeze harder before you can catch your breath. They have had close halftime scores in 3 of their games so far (Wisconsin, Michigan State, and North Carolina) but in the 2nd half of those 3 games, they have outscored opponents 54-15, proving they don’t just beat you.

Opponents have been able to throw just 6/104 non-garbage-time completions deep so far this year. They have forced 14 turnovers and are +13 in turnover margin due to some sort of extreme ball-magnetism, solid schemes, and just dudes making plays. Their DBs are insanely talented and, should he play, Leonard Moore in my opinion is so good, he is effectively DNT. DO NOT TRY. Their safeties are truly sideline to sideline safeties and have great situational awareness.

One caveat that I also want to make, the caliber of opponent that they have faced is not stellar with possibly the exception of Wisconsin who has a solid defense. But none of their opponents to date have quite the statistical profile of BYU on both the offense and defense.

So how do you beat them?

Notre Dame hasn’t lost a game since the 2nd game of the 2025 season, so we’ll probably need to go back to last year to see what happened in Notre Dame’s 2 losses that BYU might be able to leverage to pull off the tremendous upset. (It’s worth adding into consideration how the game at North Carolina went down this season too).

Miami 27, Notre Dame 24: Win the ball-control game and the turnover battle.

Miami ran 11 more plays than the Irish with a 54% Early Down Success Rate that no opponent this season has come remotely close to. (Which makes sense, knowing what we now know about how Miami’s season ended.) Miami also was able to win the turnover battle 2-0 yet scored just 3 points off of turnovers. Miami sacked CJ Carr 3 times in that game and hung around until the end, in which they were able to go on 1 final drive and kick the game winning FG with just over a minute left.

So what’s the lesson? Stay on schedule, keep ND’s offense off the field, steal possessions.

Texas A&M 41, Notre Dame 40: The explosive route

Texas A&M was able to attack in a completely different way, completing just 17/37 passes against the Notre Dame defense, but those 17 completions went for 360 yards, an absolutely staggering 21.2 yards/reception including an 86 yard TD among 10 total explosive offensive plays. When they got into scoring territory, they scored TDs. Le’Veon Moss ran in 3 TDs. CJ Carr also helped in this game throwing an interception right before half time that led to another A&M TD.

The Lesson: Make chunk plays count. Touchdowns on quality drives. Capitalize on the few mistakes Notre Dame makes.

How did UNC get to 21-20 before faltering down the stretch?

North Carolina had the best success passing the ball that anyone has had on this Fighting Irish defense to date. They didn’t do it by throwing deep. 27/28 UNC passes were short, with 3 TDs going to tight ends Jelani Thurman and Shamar Easter. They also were assisted by a Kick Return TD coming out of the half. UNC was only able to sustain three 7-plus-play drives out of 9 actual drives they had, one of those long drives coming on the heels of a gigantic 4th down goal line stand for the UNC defense.

The Lesson: Special Teams can find hidden yards and points that the offense may not be able to get. Leverage Tight Ends in short, high-accuracy passing.

Not a single one of these teams beat Notre Dame by lining up and just simply being better than them. Play after play, they had to fight for everything to turn the tide in their favor in order to eek out a close and gritty win against an elite opponent.

The Matchup

You will undoubtedly notice that ND has a better statistical rank in nearly every single one of these metrics. BYU is going to have to leverage their play on the field (as mistake-free as possible), their ability to not be as affected by altitude, and their home-field advantage to grind out a gritty and hard-fought game should they stand a fighter’s chance to win this game.

BYU’s run game is Bear-centric now

This is going to be one of the hardest matchups on the board. BYU thus far has been #1 in the country in EPA/Rush and #5 in Rush Success Rate. Notre Dame is #1 in Rush Success Rate Allowed and has given up just 2 explosive rushes all season (6 games). On paper that’s strength on strength, and in reality, BYU not having LJ Martin healthy for this game is a major blow.

Without LJ against ISU, BYU’s running backs had success on just 14% of their carries. Bear found success on 89% of his carries. But here’s the part that not a lot of people have been talking about yet. Notre Dame hasn’t let QBs beat them with their legs. They have 25 non-sack rushes for a total of 81 yards with a 24% Success Rate. Granted, none of those QBs run the ball quite like Bear does. I think this is one of those games where BYU is going to have to do whatever it takes and Bear is probably going to have to run for 12-15 carries against Notre Dame for his impact to be felt in the ground game.

There is some good news that could change some of this equation though. Sione Moa has been cleared to play, though we don’t know the extent of the impact he will be able to have on the game, dealing with a knee injury suffered in the Week 1 win against Utah Tech. Sione came into the season after a banged-up 2025 season as RB2 behind LJ. On Moa’s 43 carries over the past few seasons, he is averaging 4.56 yards/carry with a 47% success rate, 4 explosive rushes, and an EPA/Rush of 0.2. Sione isn’t LJ, nobody on the roster is, but he gives BYU at least 3 things, some of which the young Freshmen RBs don’t have.

1. History. Sione Moa had the game of his life, seemingly out of the blue against KState in 2024 going for 15 carries for 76 yards and a huge TD.
2. Finishing. Sione has converted 3/4 short-yardage carries on 3rd and 4th down (2 and fewer yards to go) and he is 3/3 on Rush Success inside the 10 yard line, with 2 going for TDs.
3. Experience. Sione has been a part of the team for a long time, while he hasn’t been on the field, I am sure he has taken a major coaching and mentoring role with the RBs while recovering from his injuries over the last 3 seasons.

I am not saying we should throw Sione into the fire against the #1 Rushing defense in the country in his first game back, but it would be nice if he could fill the role of an RB they have to respect to help make Bear’s selective reads more viable.

To go with all of this, BYU must find a way to win on first down. If BYU finds themselves in 2nd and 9 and 3rd and 7 or longer all night, it is going to be a long night in Provo.

ARod will need to be in his bag

If BYU is going to pass on this defense with any measure of success, history has told us a few things. Get the ball to your skilled guys quick and let them get some YAC. It is going to be very hard to throw deep on this defense, but given the circumstances, they are going to have to try. One thing Notre Dame cannot prepare for without being here is Elevation. The more BYU can wear down and gas the secondary, the more opportunities for cracks in the armor to appear. This is the type of game where I would consider altering your typical pace of play at times and going no-huddle to play fast, something neither team has really shown much of at all this season. I am sure Notre Dame’s conditioning is top-notch, but there is something to be said about keeping the guys on the field at altitude and running them all around the field. This could be a situational slight advantage that BYU may need to consider.

Notre Dame has an outstanding defensive line and NFL-caliber talent all over. BYU is going to have to find a way to force the defense into compromised positions and take extreme advantage of mismatches as they appear. Bear is going to have to play the absolute best game of his life, and he is going to need his receivers to catch the balls he puts in their hands.

I said it earlier and I think I will say it again for good measure. It is my honest opinion that, should he play, Leonard Moore is a DO NOT TRY player. Which is REALLY unfortunate because he is probably going to be covering Legend Glasker a large majority of the time if that’s the case. This means that Lyons, Saleapaga, Kasper, and Jojo are going to have to step up and make plays when given the opportunity. The only silver lining about Moore being on the field is there is only one of him. Their other DBs are talented, but I don’t know that anyone on the defensive field is better than #15 should he play.

Turn Quality Drives into Touchdowns

BYU is #13 in the country right now in Points/Eckel (the measure of finishing quality drives with Touchdowns.) and Notre Dame is #66 in Points/Eckel Allowed with 4.22. That being said, so far Notre Dame has only allowed 8 non-garbage time drives into quality territory, but 4 of those drives have resulted in Touchdowns.

BYU is going to have to sustain and finish drives if they want to win this huge game. There are no two ways about it.

The Defense will be key

BYU’s defense has been absolutely terrific, especially at home this season. This is one of those things also where the fact that they will have 64k+ rowdy fans screaming while Notre Dame is on offense will help. It will make assignment changes harder to communicate for the offense and will be instrumental in finding a way to win this game.

Notre Dame’s only statistical glaring weakness so far this season has been on 3rd down, especially when they are in passing down situations. Most teams they’ve played against haven’t been able to really slow down their offense (#2 in Early Down EPA) but this is going to be an important button to press should the Cougars stand a chance in pulling the upset.

This season BYU’s defense is #19 in Early Down Success Rate and #13 in Late-Down Success Rate. If BYU can win on 1st and 2nd down even 50% of the time, it can help to limit ND’s possessions and score. This will be especially important early in the game. (See Wisconsin game as example. 3 times they forced a 3 and out on ND in the first half. Notre Dame has had a grand total of TWO three-and-outs in their other games combined. They were able to do this by limiting the run. 13 of 14 Notre Dame runs in the first half against Wisconsin went for 3 or fewer yards with the other one going for just 5 yards. This Carr-led offense went 0-6 on 3rd downs in that game averaging 7.7 yards to go on 3rd down. Runs must be fit to a T.

Notre Dame also helped out a little bit in the somewhat hostile “neutral” field environment in Lambeau. Having a false start and holding penalties get them behind the sticks.

Missed tackles will lead to explosives

This Notre Dame team is very talented (top 5? roster in the country) and missing tackles on them is going to result in extra yards that, simply put, BYU cannot afford to give up. BYU had WAY too many missed tackles last Friday night. Aiden Flora had 13 carries for 17 yards if you take out his 3/4 carries in which he avoided a would-be tackle for loss and was able to turn nothing into something. The defense has been in the right position to make plays the majority of the time. BYU is going to have to be disciplined against the run, make plays on early downs and force CJ Carr into obvious passing situations. This only works if the first guy who gets there makes the tackle.

The tackling in pass coverage was really good against ISU. BYU did not allow a single pass to go for more than 10 yards of YAC. Notre Dame receivers are averaging 5.5 YAC and 14 of CJ Carr’s completions have gone for 10+ YAC.

Against ISU, missed tackles turned 2nd and 3rd and long into first downs, in a game that finished 24-10. That will not be the end result should this happen against ND.

So where does the upset start

Hidden possessions and yardage is where this game is going to be won by BYU if they are able to capitalize. These teams throughout the season have been 2 of the slowest pace of play teams in the country. A slow game means fewer possessions, potentially 9 or 10 maximum for each team. Any turnover, failed 4th down, or blocked punt in a game with that few of possessions swings the score by a lot if they can capitalize.

Turnovers are going to matter more than almost anything. Notre Dame is a ridiculous +13 in turnover margin on the season. In non-garbage time, the Irish are +9 with 0 giveaways and Carr has not thrown a non-garbage time interception all season. That discipline and control is the reason ND has looked unbeatable to the inferior competition.

BYU has also been tremendously careful in this regard. Bear doesn’t have a single non-garbage time interception this year either and BYU’s only meaningful giveaway was the muffed punt against ISU.

If BYU can play clean and win the turnover battle +2 or better, I think they have a real shot at stealing a victory out of the jaws of defeat, but one thing is certain. This will NOT be given to them. They must take it.

So let’s tie it all up

I said it before and I will say it over and over again. I think Notre Dame is the more talented and statistically better team. They are in Elite tier this season so far. It has more talent, is healthier, and when all is said and done, with a win in Provo, is likely to finish the season in the top 5.

But this game is at night, in Provo, and the Irish have to come up above 4500 feet to do it.

1. BYU needs to win the turnover battle. My estimation is they are going to have to probably be +2 or better to really make it interesting and spring the upset.
2. Win on first down. BYU is going to have to show potentially the best 1st down team in the country that they want it more. Every single play and drive is going to require maximum effort.
3. Use Bear’s legs wisely. We do not want Bear taking unnecessary hits that he doesn’t need to (and I didn’t even really get into just how hard these ND defenders hit).
4. Take calculated shots. I don’t think BYU is going to win this game by getting out of their element and just going for 10+ explosive plays (if they do that, maybe we need to seriously re-evaluate this BYU team and the postseason potential).
5. SEVEN, NOT 3. Notre Dame is not going to give you a lot of scoring opportunities, so you MUST capitalize when the opportunity presents itself. BYU simply cannot afford to leave points on the field the way they did against ISU last Friday.
6. Bonus: Steal one on special teams. Either a block, kick/punt return or pinning ND deep (preferably by the ROC) will go a long way in a low-possession game.

My projection model for this game says Notre Dame by 6 points (BYU cover). The market is saying 10.5+ and if I am giving my honest opinion, a cover but a loss is still an actually fantastic result for this game. For BYU to win, they need to survive until the 4th quarter and let the Vampire Cougs come out to play.

I personally think Notre Dame wins this game 27-23 and I will not be surprised to see BYU hanging around long enough to give it a shot at the end of the game. Crazier things than that have happened at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

You can find me on X/Twitter @m4gbit or hanging out in the CougConnect Discord. Don’t forget to subscribe! See you at LaVell’s House on Saturday in what is shaping up to be one of the best games in LES history.

Go Cougs!