The Case for the Upset: 3 Reasons BYU Beats Notre Dame on Saturday

Two takes on Saturday. Our numbers-first Beyond the Box Stat Preview picks Notre Dame 27–23. This is the other side of the argument: the case for the upset.

Cougar fans, it is time. The highly anticipated game against the #2-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish has arrived. When this game was announced in the offseason, Cougar fans immediately started fighting for tickets for the once-in-a-generation type game for many fans. It is widely accepted amongst Cougar fans that Saturday will be the biggest and most important game in LaVell Edwards Stadium history.

Critics and analysts around the country favor the Irish in this game, as they come in as a 10.5-point favorite on the road in Provo. There is no question at all: the Irish are the most talented and probably deepest overall team that BYU will face this year and perhaps even in their short history in the Big 12 conference. The Irish come in with an elite defense and an offense that is outscoring opponents thus far 264 to 66. Needless to say, the Cougars will have their hands full.

While the Irish are as talented as they come, there is reason to believe that BYU has more than a fair shot to take down the Irish. Here we evaluate 3 reasons why the Cougars will beat the Irish this Saturday in Provo.

1. Bear Bachmeier

Bear Bachmeier, the one-time Notre Dame recruit, is coming off what many consider his best game as a BYU quarterback. Bear finished last game against Iowa State with a stat line of 22/30 passing for 329 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, and 9 carries for 109 yards on the ground. Notre Dame is, of course, a step up in competition compared to the Cyclones, but the Cyclones have a good defense that Bear completely diced and sliced all night long. Of his 8 incompletions, at least 3 were drops, and 3 were missed pass interference calls. Bear had complete control of the offense, and with that, fans got to see just how lethal the TE duo of Roger Saleapaga and Walker Lyons can be for Bear.

Bear is a true dual threat. He can beat you with his legs and through the air. For BYU to beat Notre Dame, Bear is going to need to have success on the ground to help open up the pass game against the talented Irish secondary. Bear has shown that he can avoid turning the ball over this season as he currently boasts an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. BYU hasn’t had the need to throw the ball this year for the most part, so there is not a lot of film on just how lethal and difficult to defend this offense can be. Look for Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars to show new looks and concepts that Notre Dame hasn’t prepared for. Cougar fans, Bear is set to take another step forward and lead the Cougars to an upset victory for the ages over the Irish.

Bear Bachmeier Masterclass 🐻

22/30
329 PASS YDS
109 RUSH YDS
2 TD

Highlights vs. Iowa State 🎬@BYUfootball pic.twitter.com/M4AV4fKcML

— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) October 10, 2026

2. The BYU 12th Man

One of the most challenging aspects the Irish will have on Saturday night is that they have to take on BYU in Provo. Irish fans across social media will say that the environment at LaVell Edwards Stadium won’t faze their team at all. Respectfully, they have no idea what they’re talking about. Cougar fans don’t have to think hard to find games where they immediately had an impact on the outcome of the game from the stands. Think of 2021 Arizona State, 2022 Baylor, 2024 Kansas State, and so on. The fans helped take over those games, causing penalties, creating momentum, and being so loud that the opposing teams couldn’t hear each other.

LES might not be the biggest stadium Notre Dame has played in, but you can sure bet that it will be one of the loudest.

Since 2020 BYU has won 85% of its home games and has consistently been able to create an environment with the fans that creates a true home field advantage. Look for Cougar fans to be loud and aggressive to try and get into the young mind of CJ Carr. Any piece of a play that can go the Cougars’ way will get the crowd rowdy and loud.

For BYU to beat Notre Dame and give the Cougars the best possible advantage, fans will need to show up in record fashion and be loud all game. This game can help establish BYU as a premier team in the modern day of college football and a consistent College Football Playoff threat. Fans need to be loud, proud, and rowdy all night long.

3. Kelly Freaking Poppinga

Notre Dame has been comfortable in each of their games for the most part. They’ve had very little resistance in pretty much every game they’ve played this year. The Irish have yet to face true adversity and be punched in the mouth — enter Kelly Poppinga. The first-year defensive coordinator has picked up the defense right where it left off, and in the opinion of this author, Poppinga has improved the defense from where it was a year ago. The pass rush is starting to come into its own and starting to cause true chaos for opposing quarterbacks; to see this, look no further than the game against ISU this past week. Five different Cougars got credit for a sack, four of them splitting half-sacks, meaning BYU had multiple people in the backfield all game long.

Poppinga has been able to generate chaos so far this season, and for those loyal listeners of the CougConnect podcast, you’ll know there is reason to believe Notre Dame is going to see the most chaotic version of this defense yet. The defensive players are up for the challenge and are ready to earn the respect of the entire country. BYU will need to make CJ Carr uncomfortable with multiple QB hits, hurries, and sacks early. If BYU can speed up his progression and force him into errors, look for the secondary and linebacking corps to capitalize and win the turnover margin. For BYU to win this historic matchup, the defense will need to play perhaps its best game in the BYU Big 12 era.

Score and Stat Prediction

Want the numbers-first take? Read our #2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU: Beyond the Box Stat Preview, which sees it the other way. Then subscribe and join the Discord to argue about it with us.

Go Cougs!