BYU Cheering Guide: Two Paths to the Playoff

BYU is 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12, ranked No. 10 by the College Football Playoff committee after last week’s loss at Utah. The Cougars have two ways into the playoff: an at-large bid, or a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Each path needs different results this weekend.

Good news: this week the two paths line up. No game on this list has BYU fans pulling one way for the playoff and the other way for the Big 12. All times Mountain; lines as of Wednesday and will move.

Step 1, for both paths: Beat Baylor

Baylor (6-3) at No. 10 BYU · Sat 1:30 p.m. · FOX · BYU -7.5

Baylor is also 4-2 in the Big 12. A win keeps BYU at No. 10 or better and knocks the Bears out of the title-game race. A loss all but ends the Big 12 path, dropping BYU’s title-game chances from about 28% to about 1% in our model.

Path 1: An at-large playoff bid

Where BYU stands: No. 10 in the CFP rankings, No. 12 in the AP and Coaches polls.

The cut line: 2026 is the last year of the 12-team playoff. It has five automatic bids (the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions plus the top Group of 6 champion) and seven at-large spots, with straight seeding. If the season ended Tuesday, the field would be the top 11 plus Boise State (No. 24, the top G6 team). BYU would be the No. 10 seed and play at No. 7 Miami in the first round. Kentucky at No. 11 would be the last team in, and Texas Tech at No. 12 would be bumped. BYU has one spot of cushion.

The formula: teams just behind BYU need to lose so they can’t pass it, and teams just ahead need to lose so BYU can climb.

Must-root: the teams right behind BYU

• Oklahoma State over No. 12 Texas Tech (Sat 7:30 p.m., ESPN, OKST -3.5). Texas Tech is the first team outside the field. This one matters for both paths.
• Florida over No. 11 Kentucky (Sat 4:15 p.m., ESPN, UK -3.5). Kentucky is the team directly behind BYU.
• SMU over No. 13 Wake Forest (Sat 10 a.m., ESPN, SMU -1.5). Fine print: this keeps SMU (5-2 ACC) alive in the ACC race. An unranked ACC champion would take an at-large spot, so this one is a lean rather than a lock.
• Colorado over No. 14 Houston (Fri 8:15 p.m., ESPN, HOU -10). Another game that matters for both paths.
• No. 9 Indiana over No. 18 USC (Sat 1:30 p.m., CBS, IU -10). Indiana is already ahead of BYU and in the field either way. A USC road win over a top-10 team could vault the Trojans past BYU, but a loss knocks them out of the at-large race.

Strong root: the teams just ahead of BYU

These underdogs would still have three or more losses after an upset, so none of them can jump BYU. A loss by the favorite just helps BYU climb. Climbing into the top 8 seeds would mean a home playoff game.

• Texas A&M over No. 8 Tennessee (Sat 1 p.m., ESPN, TENN -2.5).
• LSU over No. 6 Texas (Sat 5:30 p.m., ABC, LSU -4).
• Vanderbilt over No. 3 Alabama (Sat 10:45 a.m., SEC Network, ALA -17.5).
• Arizona over No. 2 Utah (Sat 5:30 p.m., FOX, UTAH -2.5). BYU beat Arizona 28-17, so an Arizona win makes that result look better.

Resume booster

• Notre Dame over Boston College (Sat 1:30 p.m., NBC, ND -29.5). BYU’s 28-24 win over the Irish is the best win on its resume.

Lean

Purdue over No. 15 Iowa · Michigan over No. 16 Oregon · Arkansas over No. 17 South Carolina · Oklahoma over No. 19 Ole Miss · Miami over Duke (keeps a surprise ACC champion out)

Doesn’t matter much

Missouri at Georgia · Illinois at UCLA · Oregon State at Boise State

Path 2: The Big 12 Championship Game

Where BYU stands: tied for third at 4-2, behind Utah (6-0) and Texas Tech (5-1). The top two in conference win percentage make the title game.

Team	Big 12	Left to play
Utah	6-0	@ Arizona, @ TCU, West Virginia
Texas Tech	5-1	@ Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, TCU
BYU	4-2	Baylor, @ Kansas, Cincinnati
Houston	4-2	@ Colorado, @ West Virginia, Baylor
Arizona	4-2	Utah, @ Kansas State, Arizona State
Baylor	4-2	@ BYU, Texas Tech, @ Houston
Oklahoma State	4-2	Texas Tech, @ Arizona State, Kansas

What the tiebreakers say (if BYU wins out to 7-2)

• Utah: Utah beat BYU, so BYU is realistically playing for second place.
• Texas Tech: BYU wins this tie. The two teams didn’t play, so the next step is record against common conference opponents. BYU would be 5-0 against Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor. Texas Tech already lost to Cincinnati. That means Tech only has to lose one more game.
• Houston: BYU loses this tie. Houston beat UCF and BYU didn’t, so Houston wins on common opponents. Houston has to lose at least once.
• Arizona: BYU wins this tie (head-to-head, 28-17).
• Oklahoma State: the tiebreak is close and could go either way, so it’s better if OSU loses at least once.

The simple version: BYU wins out, Texas Tech loses once, and Houston loses once.

This week’s Big 12 cheers

• Colorado over Houston (Fri 8:15 p.m., ESPN, HOU -10). This is the biggest non-BYU Big 12 game of the week. Houston is the team BYU can’t beat in a tiebreaker.
• Oklahoma State over Texas Tech (Sat 7:30 p.m., ESPN, OKST -3.5). This would give Tech the loss it needs. OSU would then be a contender, so BYU fans need the Cowboys to lose later (at Arizona State or vs. Kansas).
• Kansas over West Virginia (Sat 3:30 p.m., ESPNU, WVU -3). This is a tiebreaker play: Kansas is a BYU opponent, and its wins help BYU in the deeper tiebreak steps.
• Minor: Iowa State over Cincinnati, TCU over Kansas State.

Arizona vs. Utah barely matters for this path because BYU owns the tiebreaker over Arizona. Cheer for Arizona for Path 1.

Circle these for later

• Nov. 21: Baylor over Texas Tech, West Virginia over Houston, Arizona State over Oklahoma State
• Nov. 27–28: Baylor over Houston (the biggest single game left), TCU over Texas Tech, Kansas over Oklahoma State

By the numbers

These come from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the Big 12 season. Each game uses ESPN’s FPI win probabilities, and ties are settled with the Big 12’s published tiebreaker steps. If BYU wins out and Texas Tech loses even once, BYU’s chances rise to 50–60%. If Tech wins out, they fall to about 2%.

And if Saturday goes wrong, the path doesn’t end. Even if Houston and Texas Tech both win, a BYU win over Baylor leaves the Cougars at about 23%, and Baylor over Tech plus West Virginia over Houston on Nov. 21 would push that near 78%.

Perfect Saturday scorecard

• BYU over Baylor (both paths)
• Colorado over Houston, Fri (both)
• Oklahoma State over Texas Tech (both)
• Florida over Kentucky (playoff)
• SMU over Wake Forest (playoff)
• Indiana over USC (playoff)
• Texas A&M over Tennessee (playoff)
• LSU over Texas (playoff)
• Arizona over Utah (playoff)
• Notre Dame over Boston College (playoff)
• Kansas over West Virginia (Big 12)