Congrats Cougar fans, we’ve made it through the offseason. We may not be exactly where we expected to be here in August but it’s finally time we get to see the work these guys have been doing over the past 7-8 months since we last saw them.
I wanted to start by shamelessly plugging the CougConnect Discord. If you are not on the Discord, you should fix that, it truly is a fantastic community. More specifically, I want to call out the #stats channel. This is where myself and others post stats/content directly related to how our Cougars are doing statistically. If you enjoy this article, there’s much more fun to be had there.
Now that is out of the way, let’s look at a scary picture. I present to you, my Advanced Stats for our BYU Cougars in 2023.
Now, you may not fully understand what you are looking at, and that is okay. All you really need to know is Red = Bad (Ranked in the bottom 25 of all FBS for that stat). We all know how 2023 went, and we all know what a turnaround was had in 2024, which is the next image we will look at.
I wanted to take a moment and talk about some areas that we made the biggest strides in offensively and defensively from 2023 -> 2024 and also call out a couple of areas where I still feel we have room for improvement to move into the “serious contender” category in regards to the CFP.
Disclaimer: My stats don’t necessarily line up with other stats you may see, and that is intentional. I cut out all garbage time plays from my stats and they also only include games vs FBS opponents. (Read the glossary for more detailed information on what some of these terms mean)
TOP 5 Areas of Offensive improvement from 2023 -> 2024
- Explosive Plays: +51
- BYU’s offense saw a massive jump in explosive plays in 2024 essentially doubling their explosive rushes from the year prior. As we all know, BYU was pretty abysmal running the ball throughout much of 2023, it was so nice to see TJ Woods already making a huge impact in year 1.
- Eckel Rate: +29.1%
- The offense went from being one of the bottom 6 to the top 4 at sustaining quality drives in all of FBS from 2023 to 2024.
- Early Down EPA (Expected Points Added): + 0.16
- BYU turned moving the ball on early downs into a hallmark of their team last year. They got a 1st down on either first or second down 33% of the time (1/3 plays) good enough for top 5 in the country in that metric.
- % Available Yards Gained: + 20%
- BYU was a bottom 10 team in this stat in 2023 and flipped the script becoming a top 20 team in 2024. % Available Yards Gained is a stat that measures how far you have to go to score, and how many yards you gained on that drive every time you get the ball.
- Points Per Game (PPG): +8.07
- BYU’s offense was averaging more than a TD per game more than they did in 2023. This paired with the defensive improvements were a telling factor in how BYU went from 5-7 to 11-2.
- (Honorable Mention) Overall Success Rate: +9.5%
- BYU’s offense was able to move the ball much more successfully than the year prior, yet again going from a bottom 15 team in this stat into the top 25.
Areas of Offensive Struggles:
- Points Per Eckel Drive: -0.82
- While BYU’s Eckel Rate was greatly increased, the tendency to need to settle for FG’s or walk away with nothing in opponent territory led to BYU dropping from the #33 team in this stat in 2023 to a bottom 25 team in 2024.
- A value closer to 3 indicates a tendency to need to settle for FGs on quality drives when compared to a value above 4.5.
- 3rd Down Success Rate: +4.3%
- I know you are possibly looking at this number and saying “Steven, this number increased, how can you possibly say that is a bad thing?” and if you are saying that, let me explain with a chart.
Below, you will notice how BYU stacked up on 3rd down offense and defense among other P4 schools (Other Big 12 schools highlighted) There were only two Big 12 teams below P4 average in regards to 3rd down success on both sides of the ball: BYU and Oklahoma State. To be a true contender in the national landscape, we’re going to need to find a way to convert more on 3rd down so we don’t always have to rely on 4th down success to keep our drives going.
- I know you are possibly looking at this number and saying “Steven, this number increased, how can you possibly say that is a bad thing?” and if you are saying that, let me explain with a chart.
Speaking of defense, let’s take a look there
Top 5 Areas of Defensive Improvement from 2023 -> 2024
- PPG Allowed: -10.2
- I view this as the most-telling statistical improvement for our defense. They held our opponents on average to 34% less points than the year prior. This stat paired with the offensive side made way for a net 18.27 PPG swing in BYU’s favor.
- Yards Per Play Allowed: -0.98
- Opponents ability to move the ball on our defense declined 16% good for a jump from #86 to top 20 in 2024.
- Explosive Plays Allowed: -22
- BYU made tremendous strides in not allowing opponents’ to have a ton of explosive plays collectively moving in this category from Tier 4 to Tier 2 in all of FBS.
- Defensive Pass Efficiency: -18.0
- BYU’s DBs and LBs were key in dropping opponent Pass Efficiency to very sub-par 124.2 for the 2024 season. This stat, paired with the offensive side is used to determine a Pass Efficiency Differential (PED) and in 2024, BYU saw it’s highest PED since 2020 (#31 nationally)
- Fun fact, no team has won a national championship in the CFP-era (and for a long while before) without being in the Top 10 nationally of Pass Efficiency Differential. It goes to show that serious contenders are extremely efficiency passing the ball as well as defending the pass.
- % Available Yards Gained: -9.8%
- BYU’s defense essentially went from allowing our opponents’ to gain nearly 50% of available yards on average in 2023 to allowing just 37.3% in 2024. The reduction from 1/2 to just over 1/3 played a huge role in BYU’s success.
Area of Defensive struggles (relative to 2023):
- 4th Down Success Rate: +15.5%
- This is really the only major blaring negative change shown in these stats on the defensive side of the ball. BYU was squarely in Tier 3 – Tier 4 in regards to getting off the field on late downs in 2024.
So… where do we go from here?
I’ve got 3 areas on both sides of the ball that I’d like to see improvements to help BYU become an even more serious Conference + CFP Contender. We’ve taken major strides from 2023 -> 2024, and I would like to see even more drastic strides in these key areas.
Offensive Areas I’d Like To See Statistical Improvement
- 3rd Down Success Rate
- BYU converted on just 37% of their 3rd downs in 2024. I know we go for it on 4th down a lot, but there is a sizable difference in the efficiency metrics of a team when they don’t need to rely on 4th down to keep their drives alive. In most cases at the highest tier of CFB, needing to go for it on 4th down to keep a drive alive regularly indicates you are probably not going to rise to the top that year.
- Points Per Quality Drive:
- BYU was among the best teams in the country (a la Ole Miss, LSU, Ohio State) in regards to getting quality drives, but was pretty bad at converting those drives into TDs. My typical “contender” benchmark for P4 teams is above 60% Eckel Rate and above 4.5 points per Eckel. 2021 was the last time BYU met that threshold offensively but unfortunately the defense was unable to capitalize in 2021. So the area of improvement is simple. Convert drives into TDs more regularly than we did last year. We have Will Ferrin, but it’s telling that he was setting # of FG kicking records in 2024.
- Balancing Efficiencies:
- BYU was a top-20 team in regards to having successful plays when running the ball last season.
- BYU (QBU?) was middling in regards to Offensive Passing Success.
- If BYU wants to be a true contender, they’ll need to find a way to return to their roots and find a way to beat teams through the air more regularly. The last 4 CFP Champions have had a Pass Success Rate of at least 53% and thrown for at least 9 yards per pass.
Defensive Areas I’d Like To See Statistical Improvement
- 3rd/4th Down Defense
- BYU’s defense needs to get off the field more regularly than they do. BYU’s defense has made insane strides in year 2 under Jay Hill, but they need to keep the same velocity into year 3 to be considered a defense worthy of a CCG/CFP contender.
- Rush Success
- BYU’s rush defense has left a bit to be desired even as late as last year. They got gashed a lot by RBs/QBs all season but were able to make plays on passing downs to make up for some of the inefficiencies. I can think of a few times in the KState game alone in 2024 where KState would bust off a good run, get into BYU territory, and then just fizzle out because they weren’t able to convert passing the ball. The defense needs to continue to make strides in setting the edge, not losing contain, and rallying to the ball. They do this, and they’ll get even better statistically.
- Defensive Consistency
- This one, I don’t have a tangible stat developed yet to compare BYU to other teams, but I do know that BYU’s defense allowed opposing offenses to go on a 10+ play drive on ~22% of their drives (29/131). The BYU defense made some INSANE plays in 2024, but they also allowed opposing offenses to regularly march down the field. Sure they largely stopped those teams from scoring, but every second the opposing team has the ball is a second that our offense can’t score.
All that said, this is shaping up to be an extremely exciting year for us BYU fans. I, as well as the rest of you I’m sure, am looking forward to the year of the Bear and the days of 47.
Follow me on Twitter/X @m4gbit
Find me hanging out in #stats on the CougConnect discord.
Go Cougs!
