[Free Article] New Expectations

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BYUtv/BYU Sports Nation’s Jarom Jordan joins CougConnect as a regular contributor during the men’s basketball season.

Credit: BYU Photo

The Cougars are spiraling. A four-game losing streak and losses in five of six have BYU searching for answers.

Where did BYU’s defense go? What happened to Keiba Keta? Is having no bench still a problem? Is this a product of who BYU has played or how BYU is playing basketball?

Granted, all four of those are quad one losses and only Oklahoma State was truly unexpected. The four-game skid is BYU’s longest under Kevin Young and longest in the now three year history in the Big 12. So relatively spiraling.

It’s a tough schedule but we expected BYU to be great. Like a 1, 2, or 3 seed. Right now they aren’t that.

The Cougars are a good team, maybe even very good but the pursuit of greatness will require some real strong play the final eight regular season games.

Credit: KenPom.com

At 17-6, 5-5 in the Big 12 a 9-9 league finish could realistically happen if the Cougars play .500 ball to finish the regular season.

KenPom is predicting a 22-9, 10-8 Big 12 record. That’d be 5-3 in the back eight. I’d take it!

The Cougars need to get some confidence this week and get a quad 1B road win at Baylor (NET 44) and Colorado at home (NET 72 is three spots within quad two).

But the bad news is the first 10 games were much easier than the final 8 will be (thanks Utah). The Big 12 loaded it so February Hoops would be awesome and it will be.

Check this out (courtesy of our BYU Sports Nation producer Colton Potter):

	Win%	Avg. NET	Quad 1 Games
First 10 Games	.516	69.8	5
Final 8 Games	.565	39.3	6

Six of the eight are quad one. Buckle up.

THE LOOK AHEAD

If BYU goes into Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament at 22-9, 10-8 in league and top 20 in NET then they are likely a five seed in most brackets.

Wild right? All of the upheaval, disappointment and angst about this team are about a higher standard, not about if they are irrationally not a tourney team. That rhetoric is silly.

If BYU is a five seed, it’s not the worst thing in the world. It’s basically the same thing as a four because you likely play each other in the second round and a top seed in the Sweet 16 potentially.

I know the 5/12 matchup is a 50/50 proposition but I don’t see a 12 giving BYU problems in the tourney with AJ. He’s a different kind of beast for the likes of Stephen F. Austin and what not.

I know it’s not what we wanted and what is warranted given the investment in this team and staff but let’s see what they can salvage in Kansas City and the defining moments in the NCAA Tournament.

The injuries to Dawson Baker, Nate Pickens and Brody Kozlowski haven’t helped.

BTW Dawson fits the criteria to return next year if he wants.

Today on BracketMatrix BYU is the first five seed. As high as a 3. As low as a 7.

If the Cougars end up being a six then summon that 1981 and 2025 energy when BYU went to the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 respectively.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has BYU as a 5 seed in Portland.

ON THIS DATE…

A year ago on this date BYU was 15-8, 6-6 in the Big 12 with a NET of 41, 2-5 in quad one games and in the Last Four In from Lunardi.

Very different. I know it’s not apple for apples but that’s for the “Would this team even beat last year’s team” convo. We can’t compare what we know about last year’s team at the end to this year’s team at its low point.

If it’s a comparison by date, it’s not close.

AP POLL DROP

BYU dropped from 16 to 22 in the AP Poll. Still ahead of Kentucky (25).

KEVIN YOUNG CONTENT TO CONSUME

Kevin wasn’t having it after the game when he talked with Spencer Linton for BYUSN Wrap Up. He’s a competitive guy and that came out in his convo. I enjoyed his fire.

Then today he talked with the media and had some interesting things to say about the bench in particular.

BAYLOR PREVIEW

Let’s talk about the Bears.

Number one storyline is the Unwelcome Back to Robert Wright III he’s about to get. For my soccer sickos he might be treated like Chelsea’s Marc Cucarella. I have a feeling Rob will be ready for the moment. Would love more than a single assist from him like in the Houston game. The Cougars need that angle of his game too. Guys have to hit shots to help that out.

Baylor is 13-10 overall, 3-8 in Big 12 play. Those three wins are Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Colorado.

NET 46 so it’s a quad one. BTW Oklahoma State was 67 in NET when BYU played the Cowboys.

Da Bears are 30th in offensive efficiency and 89th in defense. They can score. 83.4 ppg is 44th in the nation, 5th in the league.

The best player is Cameron Carr who has an NBA future. The sophomore guard shoots 42% from 3 and scores 19.6 ppg (5th in the Big 12).

He’s a top 25 big board guy (NBADraft.net & Tankathon) right now at 6-6, 180 as a shooting guard because of his length and shot making ability.

He’s seventh in the league in free throw makes and takes.

He put 24 on Iowa State playing all 40 minutes going 5/10 from 3. He forced some of those five misses up but he’s a very good player. I think AJ will match up with him some due to his length. Perhaps Richie as well. Carr was on the Big 12 Starting Five announced today.

Tounde Yessoufou is a freshman guard from Benin who is scoring 17.7 a game and has a Big 12 high 48 steals this season.

Obi Agbim is the other member of the backcourt as fifth year senior point guard. He’s third in the Big 12 in assist/turnover ratio.

As a team the Bears are top 50 in FG% (44th), Rebounding Margin (48th) and Points (44th). They are 200+ in Bench Points (317th), Points Allowed (217th), 3-pt FG D (228th), Turnover Margin (229th), and Turnovers Forced (235th).

KenPom has BYU winning this one by two points, 55% win chance.

WACO & PROVO TRANSFER PORTAL PEOPLE

Oddly enough these two schools have swapped their fair share of talent over the years.

BYU to Baylor: Caleb Lohner, Campbell and Clark Barrington

Baylor to BYU: Robert Wright III, Gerry Bohanon, Garrison Grimes

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